4 он-чейн сигнала указывают на коррекцию Bitcoin перед разделением.

Эти 4 сигнала на блокчейне указывают на возможную предкоррекцию биткоина (BTC) до половины

With the significant increase in the price of Bitcoin, more and more on-chain signals indicate an overheated cryptocurrency market. These signals are particularly relevant in the context of the upcoming Bitcoin halving.

BeInCrypto presents 4 on-chain signals that suggest a possible correction. This is especially important in terms of current price activity, which has numerous similarities with the 2019 fractal.

Back then, the price of BTC also experienced a strong upward trend, but several months before the halving, a deep correction occurred. Do the on-chain data support such predictions? Will there be a price drop during the halving period? On-chain signals: NUPL in the Confidence Zone.

Among the numerous technical similarities between the current situation in the Bitcoin market and the 2019 fractal, blockchain analysis also indicates certain parallels. The first two on-chain signals relate to the well-known indicator Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL).

NUPL is the difference between relative unrealized profit and relative unrealized loss. This ratio can also be calculated by subtracting realized capitalization from market capitalization and dividing the result by market capitalization. In addition, NUPL has several variations: for all market investors, for long-term holders (LTH), and for short-term holders (STH).

In the chart of the basic version of the index, we can see that in December 2023 and January 2024, NUPL is in the green confidence zone. During a mature bull market, this zone indicates a healthy market with a strong upward trend.

However, historically, the first entry into this zone after the macro-cycle highs (red circles) signals a future correction. Indeed, the downturns occur quite quickly after the first reach of the confidence zone (blue circles). Then NUPL returns to the yellow zone of optimism.

However, in 2019 and early 2020, NUPL again fell to minimal values in the orange (hope) and red (capitulation) zones. If history repeats itself, after a short stay in the green zone, NUPL on the chart may indicate a price drop for Bitcoin.

It is worth adding that a similar situation is observed in the NUPL chart for long-term holders (LTH). This includes addresses that have held their assets for at least 155 days. The first short-term stay in the green zone after the macro-cycle also led to a correction.

On-Chain Signals: Percentage of UTXO in Profit Enters Oversold Area

The final on-chain signal that indicates the possibility of an upcoming BTC price correction is the percentage of UTXO in profit. Simply put, this is the percentage of unspent transaction outputs (UTXO) whose price was lower than the current price at the time of creation. In other words, this indicator shows the percentage of BTC addresses that are currently in profit.

The long-term chart shows that a level above 95% is marked in red. Again, in a strong bull trend, almost all UTXOs are in profit. Furthermore, when Bitcoin reaches its all-time high (ATH), 100% of UTXOs are in profit.

On the other hand, in 2019, after the bounce from the previous macro-cycle low, the situation on this chart is similar to the signals from the NUPL chart. Before the Bitcoin halving, the timing is also similar. We see a short-term stay in the red oversold zone preceding the correction.

If the scenario repeats, the first quarter of 2024 could be a period of decline in the cryptocurrency market. This is especially likely with the precedent of the previous halving hype and euphoria after the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF.

Disclaimer

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